For everyone whose livelihood depends on cattle, the world turned upside down in 2003. Canada experienced shock waves when
BSE was discovered. The safety we felt in the past has been lost. Balance sheets turned red as each sector of the industry
became the victim to the situation. Thankfully government programs were initiated to prevent total collapse.
Support from everyday Canadian was great. Now the reverbations are spreading through the whole industry and those people
who work in secondary industries are feeling the ripple effects of an industry in crisis.
The Greek philosopher Hesiod wrote that the "first of all things was chaos." The word chaos is now one that
is associated with agriculture and in particular the beef industry.Each person has a different idea just what chaos is and what
what steps should be taken to try handling the effects that are experienced. Now the prime concern is determining the most
beneficial steps to bring order to the situation. The chaos theory developed in eighties for physical dynamical systems, now is
activily employed in everything from medicine to economics. It is an integral part of things found in social dynamics, psychology,
and education. The theory of Chaos shows us how apparently tiny and insignificant things can end up playing a major role in the way
things turn up. The bifurcation points, coupled with attractors, positive and negative feedback are critical factors of the chaos theory.
The beef industry in Canada depends to great extent on exporting of both live cattle and processed beef products. The base level of it involves
a group of independent operators with little in common except the producing a similar product. Each farm and ranch has unique characteristics ranging
from herd size to land base, location, climate and type and degree of managment. The next steps upward is the feedlots. These operations exist
with a factory nature which relies on efficiencies of scale. Packing houses slaughter the animals and create a product targeting consumer demands.
But each depends on having financial ability to continue an operation. Each climb up the food chain becomes more specialized.
Prior to May 20, 2003 the Canadian cattle industry was in good shape. Prices were high and markets held up for the long time.
Hard work by the industry had resulted in demand increasing by 3% in 2000 and Canada's exports were the third highest in the world market.
In the calm before the storm things were in a stable state. Then it happened. One cow with BSE was found and although it never entered the food
chain a crazy phenomenon happened. An over-reaction which ignored logic, science, and reason led to borders being closed for exports. The cattle industry
relies on exports for a large portion of its production. Partial recovery came late summer with boxed beef heading south. Then when a shaken industry
was a just a step away from the edge and experience a safe recovery, a second catastrophe happened with a cow number two being found in Washington State and traced
back to Canada.
These two cases are "bifurcation points" of the system. There are points where the system suddenly changes its qualitative behavior. The cattle industry
suddenly acted erratically. All that we had known before was gone. In such cases it becomes impossible to predict the future behavior of the system even based
on such things as past history. History doesn't have any answer or examples to what is experinced. You can't look back. Similar to youth, when lost you can't go back.
It is just a memory.
In a chaotic system everything is connected through negative and positive feedback streams.
Negative feedback is the type which keeps things in check.Positive feedback pushes system to change, even to explode and spiral out of control.
The borders slamming shut, prices crashing to record lows, huge inventories which are ever ballooning, were upon us. Jobs are evaporating, farmers are angry and frustrated,
and feel very helpless with what is happening. These are classed as positive feedback and send the escalating system changes into more frenzy. The process of
positive feedback often results in changes which are out of proportion with the initial kick or initial incident that activates them.
The processes ofnegative feedback changes the behavior of the system in the opposite direction. It creates stability of the system. The actions of the federal and provincial
governments and industry representatives which conducted media relations, held meetings, and the resulting bail out programs, have helped in cushioning the blow.
They assisted in stabilizing the situation. It is not the same as it once was. It is hoped that our system - the cattle industry approches a deterministic chaos
which exhibits certain regularities. In the chaos theory it is called a strange attractor. A strange attractor has an irregular, unpredictable behavior.
With strange attractors, initially adjacent points eventually follow widely divergent trajectories. Even thhough it may never be possible precisely predict phenomena, one might
foresee the global patterns of their behavior - the "order within the chaos."
The actions of a decision made by the prime players in the industry have helped to cushion the crisis at hand. But they cannot reverse the events that sent thing flying.
These actions hopefully helped a bit to calm the confusion and bring some reality. Hopefully it will be a gentle action. This is something that will be especially
important in dealing with a highly complex system. What is essential, it is an intelligent, coordinated application of very small effects. When applied properly the beneficial
effects will be felt upon the whole system. It is an action that arises out of a watchful suspension, rather than an attempt at domination and control. Clearly such an action
goes beyond any simple model, plan and policy. Policy makers must learn to tolarete these fluctuations and deviations from equilibrium
of natural systems.
The business involves matching the environment with the marketplace. One side of the industry still means pastures, feedlots and production. The things that the incident trully affected
are the markets and finances. Once the product leaves the gate it is a commodity and travels to the open market. Treaties, borders, and finances become the leading factors.
"The island of order and certainty on which we have been living has turned out not to be solid land but a rapidly melting way iceberg, and we have no alternative but to plunge into its
boiling sea of flux, uncertainty and change surround us."[F. David Peat]
Chaos may look like a random process, but it is not. Chaos, in essence, it is a system's attempt to adapt. It is looking all over the place for the solution to new environmental, social and economical demands.
Please contact Krystyna Laycraft ® for comments and requirements:
krystyna@platinum.ca
Date last updated: May 25, 2008
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